it has been busy months for me. eventually Haio looks hopeless to regain its earning momentum after suffering another heavy profit drop. My 'paper profit' has been entirely wipe out. It is still luck that i'm not losing. I've decided to sold off all Haio on end of October, to look for greener pasture.
So, this means i'm not good enough in stock investment, having earned a lot of paper profit but subsequently losing it. I think this is good lesson, not all stock i can simply buy and hold. I am also 'relieved' to find that a columnist in 'Shang Hai' magazine have the same exclamation about his foray into Haio. I cannot still cling myself onto a company with greyish earning prospect, at least in foreseeable future, might as well i try my luck in applying new share in Petronas Chemical. Seriously with market pretty high right now, i haven't found any stock which is very attractive to buy in, although i still maintain my constantly buy in strategy.
i've just started to take CFA class in Penang. It cost only RM1200 per level, good for me. The next class is starting November 2010.
Friday, November 5, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
portfolio allocation
today took a look at portfolio allocation
how to 'trade' outside the efficient frontier, in other words, beat the sharpe ratio line?
the way to do it is to do allocation every month, and remodel it every month
how to 'trade' outside the efficient frontier, in other words, beat the sharpe ratio line?
the way to do it is to do allocation every month, and remodel it every month
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
HAIO drops
Haio appears as one of the heaviest loser, losing 4.99% by noon today. It has been on the down for the past 2 trading days. What is wrong with the counter? From data it still looks fine, although there are rumours from my broker that the company is playing with account.
By its current price, my entire profit earn has been wiped off, and in fact i'm either near my original entry value or slightly losing.
The bad thing is that at the moment too busy to run a detailed analysis on its data. And since i am at square one, and is about to go for vacation, might as well just sell off to safe guard capital first.
By its current price, my entire profit earn has been wiped off, and in fact i'm either near my original entry value or slightly losing.
The bad thing is that at the moment too busy to run a detailed analysis on its data. And since i am at square one, and is about to go for vacation, might as well just sell off to safe guard capital first.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Investors to be punishable for taking part in illegal investment scheme
Authority is mulling over the idea to haul investor taking part in illegal investment scheme in future. Current law only punish those perpetrators of such scheme but is found not enough to stop the activity as demand creates supply. There are many investors who are being duped such scheme but there are many others who are actually joining such scheme willingly and trying to get more people to join in a desparate bid to make more money
Friday, August 13, 2010
genting - sell it
Genting won the tender to setup slot machine casino at New York, pushing its stock price to RM8.2 today. Should sell it :)
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Present Value of Leased Payment
debit Leasehold asset
depreciation is a non cash flow item and won't affect cash flow statement
depreciation impact income statment
credit Leasehold liability
as we keep on paying (principal payment increasing), leasehold liability keeps dropping
interest payment is decreasing (take note that for ARO, interest payment is increasing)
This will impact cash flow. principal will impact cash flow (cff), interest will impact cfi.
depreciation is a non cash flow item and won't affect cash flow statement
depreciation impact income statment
credit Leasehold liability
as we keep on paying (principal payment increasing), leasehold liability keeps dropping
interest payment is decreasing (take note that for ARO, interest payment is increasing)
This will impact cash flow. principal will impact cash flow (cff), interest will impact cfi.
Off Balance Sheet Financing
There are many types of off balance sheet of off balance sheet financing. The objective of learning off balance sheet financing is to know what it is, its impact and how to adjust for it.
Special purpose entity(SPE)
example: Enron
Enron setup lots of SPE for the sole purpose of getting loan from banks. Enron will provide corporate gurantee to its SPE. Its SPE will setup SPE and provide corporate gurantee and the list go on. When Enron goes burst, this web of SPE is so complex that no one knows who borrow money from who.
Take or pay contract
example: power purchase agreement (PPA)
Tenaga Nasional has two business: generation and distribution. Generation is more capital intensive. TNB setup PPA with companies such as YTL and Genting. Normally PPA goes by year. If TNB doesn't buy enough power from the generator as stipulated, TNB will need to pay compensation at the end. That's why TNB will have such earning patterns: 3 quarter of profits, suddenly at 4th quarter loss. As such for adjustment we need to debit income statement-> additional expense, credit accrual in balance sheet. By this we make it 'on' balance sheet.
Throughput Arrangment
This is a type of Take or Pay contract, but it is specific for oil & gas industry. Few years ago, some company want to build a pipeline from Kedah to Kelantan. To secure the usage of the pipeline, the company talk to the oil majors to agree with throughput agreement. The oil majors found it cheaper to continue using straits of Malacca rather than stick themselve to a throughput arrangment. The proposal fell through.
Throughput arrangment won't have impact to cashflow as it is a provision.
Factoring - Sale of Receivable
Imagine company A has trade receivable $100 million, cash $0 , borrowing $80 million. Company is solvent as its equity is positive. (note: equity=asset - liability, E=A-L). However, company will have problem if trade receivable is to be received in 1 month but borrowing is due today. Company have to find a company, known as a Factor, to sell its $100 million receivable. Factor will pay less than $100 million for the receivable. This is call the factoring process. A=E+L. A will decrease by $100 million, L will decrease by $80 million, E will decrease by $20 million. For CFO, increase by $80 million, CFI remains the same, CFF will decrease by $80 million. Profit will drop.
For factoring, there are two situations: 1) no recourse 2) with recourse
When A sell $100 million to factor, factor may be or may be not able to collect all the receivable. If factor cannot collect all receivable, there are two situation -> go back to collect from A or absorb the loss itself. If factor can go back to collect from A, it is known as with recourse. Otherwise it is known as no recourse.
If recourse happens, let say factor claiming $30 million from A. L of A will increase by $30 million, E will decrease by $30 million. Profit of A will decrease. CFF will increase, CFI the same, CFO decrease.
When a bank sell their loan, including NPL, it is called as securitisation, it is not a factoring process.
Leases
There are two leases : 1) operating 2) capital/finance
When A borrow money from bank to buy a house, it is loan. When A borrow money from bank to buy a car, it is a lease. The bank has the legal right for the car that's why when A default on loan, the bank can come at the middle of the night to pull away the car.
If company A make a borrowing and classify it as a operating lease, it will surface in balance sheet. Else it won't get surface in balance sheet.
Thus, the first step of doing analysis is to determine whether a lease is an operating lease, or a capital/finance lease. Features of capital lease are
i) title is transferred to leassee at the end of lease period, or
i.e. MAS buy plane by financing. At the end of the lease, the bank will not want to own the
plane.
ii) bargain purchase option (lessee may purchase the leased asset) exists, or
iii) lease period is at least 75% of asset's life, or
i.e. AirAsia borrow money to buy plane. It will tend to go for a 15 years financing rather than
5 years financing. This is because by going for longer tenure, AirAsia can 'buy' more plane
iv) present value of lease payment is at least 90% of fair value of asset
if operating lease, in balance sheet, we
debit leasable asset, credit leasable liability
in actual fact, we are debiting and crediting the PV (present value) of lease payable. i.e We are capitalizing the PV of the lease payable.
When we talk about PV, we need to have a discount rate. Discount rate is to be determined from the lower of the incremental borrowing cost of the lessee or the implicit interest rate of the lease (also known as the IRR). We choose the lower as the discount rate.
The reason wwe use the lower is because liability = summation of (lease payment / (1+discount rate))
with lower discount rate, we have higher liability
Special purpose entity(SPE)
example: Enron
Enron setup lots of SPE for the sole purpose of getting loan from banks. Enron will provide corporate gurantee to its SPE. Its SPE will setup SPE and provide corporate gurantee and the list go on. When Enron goes burst, this web of SPE is so complex that no one knows who borrow money from who.
Take or pay contract
example: power purchase agreement (PPA)
Tenaga Nasional has two business: generation and distribution. Generation is more capital intensive. TNB setup PPA with companies such as YTL and Genting. Normally PPA goes by year. If TNB doesn't buy enough power from the generator as stipulated, TNB will need to pay compensation at the end. That's why TNB will have such earning patterns: 3 quarter of profits, suddenly at 4th quarter loss. As such for adjustment we need to debit income statement-> additional expense, credit accrual in balance sheet. By this we make it 'on' balance sheet.
Throughput Arrangment
This is a type of Take or Pay contract, but it is specific for oil & gas industry. Few years ago, some company want to build a pipeline from Kedah to Kelantan. To secure the usage of the pipeline, the company talk to the oil majors to agree with throughput agreement. The oil majors found it cheaper to continue using straits of Malacca rather than stick themselve to a throughput arrangment. The proposal fell through.
Throughput arrangment won't have impact to cashflow as it is a provision.
Factoring - Sale of Receivable
Imagine company A has trade receivable $100 million, cash $0 , borrowing $80 million. Company is solvent as its equity is positive. (note: equity=asset - liability, E=A-L). However, company will have problem if trade receivable is to be received in 1 month but borrowing is due today. Company have to find a company, known as a Factor, to sell its $100 million receivable. Factor will pay less than $100 million for the receivable. This is call the factoring process. A=E+L. A will decrease by $100 million, L will decrease by $80 million, E will decrease by $20 million. For CFO, increase by $80 million, CFI remains the same, CFF will decrease by $80 million. Profit will drop.
For factoring, there are two situations: 1) no recourse 2) with recourse
When A sell $100 million to factor, factor may be or may be not able to collect all the receivable. If factor cannot collect all receivable, there are two situation -> go back to collect from A or absorb the loss itself. If factor can go back to collect from A, it is known as with recourse. Otherwise it is known as no recourse.
If recourse happens, let say factor claiming $30 million from A. L of A will increase by $30 million, E will decrease by $30 million. Profit of A will decrease. CFF will increase, CFI the same, CFO decrease.
When a bank sell their loan, including NPL, it is called as securitisation, it is not a factoring process.
Leases
There are two leases : 1) operating 2) capital/finance
When A borrow money from bank to buy a house, it is loan. When A borrow money from bank to buy a car, it is a lease. The bank has the legal right for the car that's why when A default on loan, the bank can come at the middle of the night to pull away the car.
If company A make a borrowing and classify it as a operating lease, it will surface in balance sheet. Else it won't get surface in balance sheet.
Thus, the first step of doing analysis is to determine whether a lease is an operating lease, or a capital/finance lease. Features of capital lease are
i) title is transferred to leassee at the end of lease period, or
i.e. MAS buy plane by financing. At the end of the lease, the bank will not want to own the
plane.
ii) bargain purchase option (lessee may purchase the leased asset) exists, or
iii) lease period is at least 75% of asset's life, or
i.e. AirAsia borrow money to buy plane. It will tend to go for a 15 years financing rather than
5 years financing. This is because by going for longer tenure, AirAsia can 'buy' more plane
iv) present value of lease payment is at least 90% of fair value of asset
if operating lease, in balance sheet, we
debit leasable asset, credit leasable liability
in actual fact, we are debiting and crediting the PV (present value) of lease payable. i.e We are capitalizing the PV of the lease payable.
When we talk about PV, we need to have a discount rate. Discount rate is to be determined from the lower of the incremental borrowing cost of the lessee or the implicit interest rate of the lease (also known as the IRR). We choose the lower as the discount rate.
The reason wwe use the lower is because liability = summation of (lease payment / (1+discount rate))
with lower discount rate, we have higher liability
Monday, July 5, 2010
A website that let us see the stock holding of the famous investor
Found a good website that let us see the stock holding of the famous
investment gurus.
http://www.coattailinvestor.com/members/default.aspx
for myself, the time needed to keep track of one single investor, Warren Buffett, is already involved enough. Must appreciate that thie coattailinvestor maintains much more than that. My site is at http://portfoliowatch.wordpress.com/
investment gurus.
http://www.coattailinvestor.com/members/default.aspx
for myself, the time needed to keep track of one single investor, Warren Buffett, is already involved enough. Must appreciate that thie coattailinvestor maintains much more than that. My site is at http://portfoliowatch.wordpress.com/
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Buffet Portfolio Watcher - keeping track of Berkshire Hathaway's Portflolio
I have created a nokia free apps that keep track of Warren Buffet's portfolio
Get it for free to use on your nokia phone
http://store.ovi.com/content/42460
Warren Buffett is undoubtedly the world most famous and most successful stock market investor. There are various books and web resources that dedicate to Warren Buffett and his supporters run into the millions throughout the world.
Warren Buffett, through Berkshire Hathaway, has maintained a stock investment portfolio that has continuously beat the market and has been generating compounding return of over 24% annually for the past many years. As such, it is very interesting to follow the movement of Warren Buffet stock portfolio.
Buffett Portfolio Watcher aims just to do this, with a primary objective of making the app a useful tool to help the user in managing their personal finance (i.e by keeping track on how an investment guru does it). It easily lets enthusiastic investors to follow Warren Buffet’s stock portfolio. By referencing the investment portfolio of the world most famous investment master, the user can take heed and make good decision on his own stock investment. In addition, the app does list down some common investment knowledge such as key financial ratio which is used in stock valuation for user to use as daily reference. The app can serve as a mini stock investment reference on the go. This, hopefully, will assist in increasing the level of efficiency for personal finance management.
The app consists of 4 major sections, namely
a) Portfolio
Get it for free to use on your nokia phone
http://store.ovi.com/content/42460
Warren Buffett is undoubtedly the world most famous and most successful stock market investor. There are various books and web resources that dedicate to Warren Buffett and his supporters run into the millions throughout the world.
Warren Buffett, through Berkshire Hathaway, has maintained a stock investment portfolio that has continuously beat the market and has been generating compounding return of over 24% annually for the past many years. As such, it is very interesting to follow the movement of Warren Buffet stock portfolio.
Buffett Portfolio Watcher aims just to do this, with a primary objective of making the app a useful tool to help the user in managing their personal finance (i.e by keeping track on how an investment guru does it). It easily lets enthusiastic investors to follow Warren Buffet’s stock portfolio. By referencing the investment portfolio of the world most famous investment master, the user can take heed and make good decision on his own stock investment. In addition, the app does list down some common investment knowledge such as key financial ratio which is used in stock valuation for user to use as daily reference. The app can serve as a mini stock investment reference on the go. This, hopefully, will assist in increasing the level of efficiency for personal finance management.
The app consists of 4 major sections, namely
a) Portfolio
- a. This list the major stock holding of Berkshire Hathaway from year 1995 to current.
- a. Selected stock in Buffet’s historical and current portfolio is selected for a brief stock comment and research.
- a. User guide and updates about the app is provided by means of RSS feed.
- b. Key financial ratios used in stock valuation are listed down one by one in the form of blog powered by RSS.
- c. Common financial calculation and investment techniques are discussed
- d. User can use this FAQ as a dictionary to their stock investment planning needs
- a. Notable stock holding changes (current portfolio) will be highlighted here
- b. Notable news about Warren Buffett will be highlighted here
- c. Notable news about listed companies which stock are hold by Warren Buffett will be highlighted here
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
using webservice and php to generate buffett's portfolio view
one of Warren Buffett's stock in his protfolio
| Ticker | Name | Price | Shares | Market Value(Million) | Weight(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSG | Republic Services | $29.23 | 10827700 | 316.49 | 0.62 |
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Using a webservice call to get stock price
I want to test how to use webservice to get stock information.
For example i want to see microsoft and yahoo
then i use
For example i want to see microsoft and yahoo
then i use
http://finance.yahoo.com/rss/headline?s=yhoo,msft
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
market crashing. what strategy
despite it is against logic to sell down a stock of a company that is still making good $ and shouldn't be affected by Europe economy downturn, i decided to sell down some Haio after seeing it lost 4% stock price today. The purpose is to cash out a bit $ in preparation to buy into other blue chips since those stock are dropping as well. Not exactly a good time to cash out but since i have huge % of my portfolio in haio, i want to readjust my exposure sometime in the future, so better sell down a bit.
after all, it is still 'in the money'
after all, it is still 'in the money'
Monday, May 24, 2010
CFA class preview and trial at Penang
MRR consulting is giving a free preview of CFA (chartered financial analyst) class on 25 May and 1st June 2010 (8pm - 930pm). There is also trial class on 27 May and 3rd June (6.30pm -9.30pm).
It is run by Ooi Kok Hwa, a columnist on The Star and a CFA himself.
the venue is B303-3-26 krystal point
It is run by Ooi Kok Hwa, a columnist on The Star and a CFA himself.
the venue is B303-3-26 krystal point
Friday, May 7, 2010
market technical crash, what to do?
originally i posted something different. but thought that i will post that next week
so market crash, it shed off quite some $ from my haio as well. i was comtemplating to sell when i realize earning of haio shouldn't be affected by europe or US.
some more by today there are more buyer than seller
so i decide to keep it
so market crash, it shed off quite some $ from my haio as well. i was comtemplating to sell when i realize earning of haio shouldn't be affected by europe or US.
some more by today there are more buyer than seller
so i decide to keep it
Thursday, May 6, 2010
pledged share value
today received my PB broker statement. surprised to find that my pledged shares value has increased 99.7% from the previous month value. Not really sure why the broker suddenly decided to do so, but it does reflect the market value of my Hai-o stock closer. Coincidentally, my latest copy of Shanghai magazine has featured Hai-o in an article, citing it as one very successful business that has tapped onto the information technology to supercharge its traditional business forward. Although it keep me wondering if this means my little beloved stock will start to have more analyst's following and hence attract more institutional investor? My reading on the edge also make me realize that NTPM Teoh is accumulating NTPM stock, despite that Tabung Haji has been cashing out for weeks.
I have also just opened a US trading account. My friend HK shared with me most US banks have Debt equity ratio > 2. Malaysian banks are really much better with none having the ratio > 1. Should i buy into US banks? when it seems imminent that US economy is recovering. Luckily for short future i need not think too much. I don't have sufficiently huge enough spare cash to go into US. While i still have some unutilized cash in Hong Kong, i should probably try to buy HK stock first.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Price Earning / PE Ratio - the thin line
PE ratio is a very common key financial ratio used in stock analysis. However, one need to be cautious of the value itself. Sometimes, forward PE ratio is reported rather than the current PE ratio. PE ratio is simply EPS/NTA, whereas forward PE is projected EPS / NTA , where the projected EPS is not something that has yet to happen. Forward PE is always used to give the investor the impression that the PE will be cheaper in future than it is currently.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
USA market a very huge market
Last friday OSK foreign stock investment talk is very nice. The speaker who came all the way from US told us that he was gonna teach us how to fish in the US market rather than just gave us a few stock to choose from. I think he has successfully done just that. I have gain some thoughts that i have never thought of, especially on how to select what to buy from the US market that has over 7000 stocks listed. I also like that he is able to use data and chart to answer the many questions that the seminar attendees posted to him.
One thing that should excite everybody to start thinking to invest in US market is that, it is huge, and using a 20 years technical chart one can see that we are clearly in recovering phase, and haven't got a bull run yet. From other data, one can also see that institutional investor are moving away from china to go to market like USA and Russia. Just based on this i think we should invest in US over long term.
One thing that should excite everybody to start thinking to invest in US market is that, it is huge, and using a 20 years technical chart one can see that we are clearly in recovering phase, and haven't got a bull run yet. From other data, one can also see that institutional investor are moving away from china to go to market like USA and Russia. Just based on this i think we should invest in US over long term.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
winner of RHB stock challenge to attend OSK seminar at Penang
My idol Yew Tatt, a winner of RHB stock investment challenge (http://rhbinvest.com/page/site/public/english/StockChallenge.html), will attend the OSK foreign market investment seminar at Penang wawasan open university this friday evening. OSK investment seminar is always pretty good
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Yew Tatt wins RHB stock challenge
Congratulations to my friend Yew Tatt for winning this. Geng!
http://rhbinvest.com/page/site/public/english/StockChallenge.html
Top 10 Players
Top 10 Players rankings for Grand Winners (1 – 31 March 2010)
http://rhbinvest.com/page/site/public/english/StockChallenge.html
Top 10 Players
| No. | User ID | Location |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | asimo | Wilayah Persekutuan |
| 2 | AngKS | Pulau Pinang |
| 3 | yew tatt | Pulau Pinang |
| 4 | reenaypl | Perak |
| 5 | ENSY | Melaka |
| 6 | Stallend | Negeri Sembilan |
| 7 | ena85 | Pulau Pinang |
| 8 | Wong Sing Kay | Johor |
| 9 | jason0226 | Wilayah Persekutuan |
| 10 | chong8922 | Johor |
Sunday, April 18, 2010
sticky downward
i've always enjoyed reading P.Gunasegaram's column since his days in the Edge, although it seems to me now in the star, his words are not as 'sharp' as his the Edge day.
Sticky downward is the phenomenm he recited on saturday. An example he gave is the fresh milk that he buys. As milk price is dominated in US dollar, when US dollar is strong or price of raw material up, the business people increase the price of fresh milk. But when raw material price drop or as Malaysia ringgit strengthen, like right now, the milk price is not going down as fast, or not going down at all. Milk price is one thing that i can feel the diminshing buying power of Ringgit. When i was in university, i loves to consume 1 litre of goodday fresh milk per day. At that time, it was selling at around RM2.99. Nowaday, it easily fetch a RM6.45 price tag, an increase of over 100%. surprisingly, during rare occassion, it is sold at discount at RM4.99. How come such huge different? A 'sticky downward' theory can explain it. The business owner simply having a very high margin, and hike up the price to maintain their margin when price of raw material goes up, but after that keep maintaining the price on an elevated level. Another example related to this is that while goodday is selling at RM6.45, dutch lady fresh milk, most of time, is sold at RM4.99. Is it the raw material price of goodday is so much higher? Since both of them source their milk locally, i don't see why the price of raw material is the answer to this.
My babies are consuming dutch lady frisolac. Again, since less than 2 years ago, price has increase almost by RM15 for frisolac 1. that is almost 40% price increase. Despite that currently RM is very strong, frisolac's price is still high upon the sky.
i have never buy stock based on this sticky downward theory. However, it is interesting to see if i should buy into a company that has such business occurance. Let's buy into Dutch Lady!
Sticky downward is the phenomenm he recited on saturday. An example he gave is the fresh milk that he buys. As milk price is dominated in US dollar, when US dollar is strong or price of raw material up, the business people increase the price of fresh milk. But when raw material price drop or as Malaysia ringgit strengthen, like right now, the milk price is not going down as fast, or not going down at all. Milk price is one thing that i can feel the diminshing buying power of Ringgit. When i was in university, i loves to consume 1 litre of goodday fresh milk per day. At that time, it was selling at around RM2.99. Nowaday, it easily fetch a RM6.45 price tag, an increase of over 100%. surprisingly, during rare occassion, it is sold at discount at RM4.99. How come such huge different? A 'sticky downward' theory can explain it. The business owner simply having a very high margin, and hike up the price to maintain their margin when price of raw material goes up, but after that keep maintaining the price on an elevated level. Another example related to this is that while goodday is selling at RM6.45, dutch lady fresh milk, most of time, is sold at RM4.99. Is it the raw material price of goodday is so much higher? Since both of them source their milk locally, i don't see why the price of raw material is the answer to this.
My babies are consuming dutch lady frisolac. Again, since less than 2 years ago, price has increase almost by RM15 for frisolac 1. that is almost 40% price increase. Despite that currently RM is very strong, frisolac's price is still high upon the sky.
i have never buy stock based on this sticky downward theory. However, it is interesting to see if i should buy into a company that has such business occurance. Let's buy into Dutch Lady!
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Zhulian is up 6.99%
Zhulian is top gainer today, surging to 2.45 or 6.99%. good, since this is the last counter that i targeted and it is up. My wife has bought into it recently
dividend is good, growth seems at least stable if not marvelous.
dividend is good, growth seems at least stable if not marvelous.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
OSK foreign market seminar at penang 23 April
Busy lately, so didn't post much. Anyhow.
There will be a seminar organize by OSK Investment Bank
Friday, 23 April 2010
Wawasan Open University
Lecture Theatre 1, Level 5,
54 Jalan Sultan Ahmad Shah,
10500 Penang
Agenda:
5.45pm Registration & Dinner
Welcome Remarks
Precious Metals Trading
- Ms.Mandy Lam
Managing Director – Business Development
OSK Futures Hong Kong Limited
Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook
- Mr.Tan Swee Koon
Research Analyst
OSK Securities Hong Kong Limited
Singapore Stock Market Outlook
- Mr. Leng Seng Choon
Co-Head of Research
DMG & Partners Securities Pte Limited
US Stock Market Outlook
- Mr.Tony Petrilli
CEO, ViewTrade Holdings USA
Q & A Session
There will be a seminar organize by OSK Investment Bank
Friday, 23 April 2010
Wawasan Open University
Lecture Theatre 1, Level 5,
54 Jalan Sultan Ahmad Shah,
10500 Penang
Agenda:
5.45pm Registration & Dinner
Welcome Remarks
Precious Metals Trading
- Ms.Mandy Lam
Managing Director – Business Development
OSK Futures Hong Kong Limited
Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook
- Mr.Tan Swee Koon
Research Analyst
OSK Securities Hong Kong Limited
Singapore Stock Market Outlook
- Mr. Leng Seng Choon
Co-Head of Research
DMG & Partners Securities Pte Limited
US Stock Market Outlook
- Mr.Tony Petrilli
CEO, ViewTrade Holdings USA
Q & A Session
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
haio post split and bonus
Hai o continual surges post bonus and split yesterday has surprised me on the upside. Yesterday it up 8%. Today it up another 4.49%. Now its price at RM4.89
by right, post bonus and split, based on price of RM10.5, would be RM4.16 only. The earning prospect of this stock is really so good? wow
by right, post bonus and split, based on price of RM10.5, would be RM4.16 only. The earning prospect of this stock is really so good? wow
Thursday, March 11, 2010
haio vs supermax
I ended up buying some haio at RM10.76 after selling out supermax at RM6.08. Haio entry price is not exactly nice, but it prevented me to get odd lots post bonus issue so i think still worth it. Today haio at RM10.58, not bad considering that people would have sell out by now coz it is too late for ppl to buy in to be entitled for bonus share. But let's just see what happen after the ex date 16 march. on the other hand supermax drop to RM5.81. From this fiasco i think the choices made by me is good enough, that i sell out supermax at profit. But it would have been better if instead of buying in supermax in the first place, i kept on accumulating Haio. Haio, with is strong dividend and resilient business with high growth potential, has ended up performing better than supermax lately.
i have also confirmed that now monthly investment limit into yuran koperasi tentera (which has a >12% annual return) has been increased from RM300 to RM700. Naturally, i increase my limit.
i have also confirmed that now monthly investment limit into yuran koperasi tentera (which has a >12% annual return) has been increased from RM300 to RM700. Naturally, i increase my limit.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
how high is koperasi tentera yuran and akaun simpanan khas
for my deposit towards the end of december 2009, early january i already get the 'interest'
surprising it turns out to be per annum
yuran 10%
akaun simpanan khas 5%
really good to serve as a super savings account
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
supermax
the news today that supermax propose 1 for 4 bonus shares confirms my banker's friend rumour on this issue. But even with that i will still opt to sell out. My buying into supermax is purely trading driven and i not intend to hold it long term. Reason being my current strategy is to buy high growth company with high dividend, of which supermax does not meet the latter criteria
The rationale behind the bonus issue was to increase the capital base of the company to a level which would better reflect the current scale of operations as well as enable shareholders to have increased equity participation through greater number of shares. Let's see whether this bonus issue will have the same effect observed on Haio, where it stock has kept surging up to RM10.7 with PE of 17x at the moment owing to its bonus 1 for 5 ex date 16 March
mean while NTPM continue to have its major shareholder buying its stock.
The rationale behind the bonus issue was to increase the capital base of the company to a level which would better reflect the current scale of operations as well as enable shareholders to have increased equity participation through greater number of shares. Let's see whether this bonus issue will have the same effect observed on Haio, where it stock has kept surging up to RM10.7 with PE of 17x at the moment owing to its bonus 1 for 5 ex date 16 March
mean while NTPM continue to have its major shareholder buying its stock.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
supermax trading profit on paper 18.36%
Based on current price of RM6.09, on paper i have a 18.36% profit for my supermax share. it is slightly over 1 month, pretty good margin. i think will exit the share today. Odds of winning (i.e to see more upside) is not as good as i buy in at RM5.06 although the analysts are still very bullish with the stock. To me, it lacks dividend.
Friday, February 19, 2010
what stock next...something i don't know?
for past two weeks i just noticed that a major shareholder of NTPM is buying its stock again. Unlike 1.5 years back, this time tabung haji is not joining the fray. Not sure if this means something is brewing again, but i think can take it as the shareholder is very positive with the company.
although my family portfolio has being having CSCSteel, now its dividend yield is 9.4% and its stock price still below book value of RM2.09. Interesting
from the edge has read that furniture companies are doing great business last year. To me since long long time ago i have thought it is a sunset industry with China and Vietnam catching up too fast and too furious. At least so far one of the Malaysian biggest export industry is still surviving.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
supermax is up
just as i was complaining about my wrong position in supermax instead of in haio, the former goes to a high of 5.61 now. that is a 10.87% gain from my price of RM5.06. Hmmm...not bad.
On the other hand, if i would have bought into haio, it would have been a gain of 12.57% excluding the dividend that i can get. As of now, both are equally good it seems i do believe in shorter term supermax has the potential to gain more than Haio in term of stock price. But the more important point should be that i have diversified into both stock and both up would be great to my portfolio
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
trading...forget about it
my attempt to earn from short term trading over supermax fail miserably. on the contrary, if i would have bought into Haio, i would have earn 10%. another blow to tell me that i should stick fast to my buy hold strategy through high dividend high growth company. Or was it just an exeption this time? Luckily, supermax, at least in near future, won't be a bad stock to own. At least it would serve to complement my existing portfolio. There is one leasson here,diversification works- although i not manage to earn from the period under review.
today i read with amazement that under the new basel 2 capital requirement, public bank tier 1 capital will be reduced to 5.6%. The bank has guided analyst that dividend payout will be slashed to 50-55% from the current 80%. ROE will also gets affected. Is this a good news? In term of short term stock price, at least i couldn't fathom why this would be a good news. Over long term i confident the bank will be able to live through it, but it appears to me there are many other more attractive stocks out there. Well, if pbbank does dip a lot may be i think buy it instead. Let's wait to see if that happens or not
Thursday, January 28, 2010
technical rebound expected
yesterday, Bursa Malaysia closed lower at 1264 on 28/1/2010. Based on 30 minute chart, it is hovering at 1261-1258 support. Resistance is at the 50% retracement of 1285, and the 61.8% at 1290. Stochastic indicator is showing a small hook-up, indicating a rebound.
RSI is still weak at 35. Today's range is between 1258 and 1268. Following the breach of the key 1286 support earlier, thesupport is lowered to the 1248 low of 30/11/09, with the immediate resistance at 1290
Reference:
from wiki, stochastics oscillator is a momentum indicator that uses support and resistance levels. It attempts to predict price turning points by comparing the closing price of a security to its price range.
The indicator is usually calculated as:
RSI is still weak at 35. Today's range is between 1258 and 1268. Following the breach of the key 1286 support earlier, thesupport is lowered to the 1248 low of 30/11/09, with the immediate resistance at 1290
Reference:
from wiki, stochastics oscillator is a momentum indicator that uses support and resistance levels. It attempts to predict price turning points by comparing the closing price of a security to its price range.
The indicator is usually calculated as:
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Dow is up a bit, how about bursa?
Dow up 41 a little bit. So i guess the market is not gonna continue to stay bearish. Yesterday upon buying in supermax, it slip another 2.5%. Let see how it goes. I shouldn't lament on that as nobody can spot the bottom precisely. Who knows bursa will even continue to slip or not today. Stock market has quite a lot of sentimental driven occassion
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
it is trading time, dude!
after a few days of heavy fall, US start to stop falling as fast. Asian markets still fall. But i decided to take a short term trading position with Supermax 7106. Buy in at RM5.06. It has since dropped RM1 + in 2 weeks. Business is still healthy and given long term wise should be still ok to have it. At current price, PE should be around 11.6 niah. It might still be a falling knife position but one never knows the exact bottom, i think at current the calculated risk is fair to go in.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
market outlook and trading strategy
I attended two investment talks over the weekend. What are the expert's view on the market outlook? Compared to the investment talk that i attended last week, the experts i met this week are rather bullish.
One of them presented on the macro economic aspect, the top down approach, while another are strictly on technical. Let's see on the macro economic side of the story here
year 2009 is a recession, year 2010 is recovery year. This can be seen from the GDP growth. For US: 2008: 0.4%, 2009: -2.6% and 2010f: 1.7%. Europe is in a deeper recession: 2008:0.7%, 2009:-4.8%,2010f:0.1%. For US, there are three important barometer on this, which is the consumer confidence index, purchasing manager index & home sales index. All these register a growth last year. On the other hand, job loss is improving but stay at 26 year high of 9.3%. With very low interest rate of 0.25%, this will translate into a very vibrant stock market. Indeed, the steps taken by Obama few days back is deemed to force the hot money back to US market, and is thought to have direct link to the heavy correction on regional market.
The expert has also pointed out that Asia emerging markets are still strong. In term of savings rate, both China & Singapore has excess of 50%, Malaysia 40.2% compared to US which only have 12.6%. GDP of these market are also good, for example: China: 2009: 8.7% and 2010f: 9.4%. In addition, china has interest is at 5.31% (the government is trying to cool down the loan growth which is high and might still increase rate). The People bank of China has also recently increase the capital ratio for banks to 16% from 15.5%. In short the country has taken step to prevent a bubble proactively and overall Asia market should be positive over long term. As such , the expert is bullish with the market.
Despite the fundamental, the expert also pointed out that bull market normally last 24 months, which mean we have another 14 months of bull market to aim at. Mean time it is 15 months for bear market, which we should have past.
Index (with respect to US)
Consumer Consumer Index
is issued monthly by The Conference Board, an independent economic research organization, and is based on 5,000 households. Such measurement is indicative of consumption component level of the gross domestic product. The Federal Reserve looks at the CCI when determining interest rate changes, and it also affects stock market prices.
Purchasing managers index
PMI measures how well the manufacturing sector is doing. PMI’s index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and employment.
One of them presented on the macro economic aspect, the top down approach, while another are strictly on technical. Let's see on the macro economic side of the story here
year 2009 is a recession, year 2010 is recovery year. This can be seen from the GDP growth. For US: 2008: 0.4%, 2009: -2.6% and 2010f: 1.7%. Europe is in a deeper recession: 2008:0.7%, 2009:-4.8%,2010f:0.1%. For US, there are three important barometer on this, which is the consumer confidence index, purchasing manager index & home sales index. All these register a growth last year. On the other hand, job loss is improving but stay at 26 year high of 9.3%. With very low interest rate of 0.25%, this will translate into a very vibrant stock market. Indeed, the steps taken by Obama few days back is deemed to force the hot money back to US market, and is thought to have direct link to the heavy correction on regional market.
The expert has also pointed out that Asia emerging markets are still strong. In term of savings rate, both China & Singapore has excess of 50%, Malaysia 40.2% compared to US which only have 12.6%. GDP of these market are also good, for example: China: 2009: 8.7% and 2010f: 9.4%. In addition, china has interest is at 5.31% (the government is trying to cool down the loan growth which is high and might still increase rate). The People bank of China has also recently increase the capital ratio for banks to 16% from 15.5%. In short the country has taken step to prevent a bubble proactively and overall Asia market should be positive over long term. As such , the expert is bullish with the market.
Despite the fundamental, the expert also pointed out that bull market normally last 24 months, which mean we have another 14 months of bull market to aim at. Mean time it is 15 months for bear market, which we should have past.
Index (with respect to US)
Consumer Consumer Index
is issued monthly by The Conference Board, an independent economic research organization, and is based on 5,000 households. Such measurement is indicative of consumption component level of the gross domestic product. The Federal Reserve looks at the CCI when determining interest rate changes, and it also affects stock market prices.
Purchasing managers index
PMI measures how well the manufacturing sector is doing. PMI’s index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and employment.
| MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE DECEMBER 2009 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Index | Series Index December | Series Index November | Percentage Point Change | Direction | Rate of Change | Trend* (Months) |
| PMI | 55.9 | 53.6 | +2.3 | Growing | Faster | 5 |
Thursday, January 21, 2010
trading strategy : dividend play in a seems to be expensive market
US stocks fell on Thursday. This happens as US President Barack Obama proposed tough restrictions on banks that would squeeze profits. The Dow had its worst two-day percentage decline since June, while the Dow and S&P 500 had their worst one-day percentage losses since late October. So it is only natural that today KLCI follow suit in declining, so far drop 7 points. Volume traded seems pretty high too. this has reminded me of what the chartnexus instructor say last week: are we on the verge of a market correction again? Will the dow celebrate chinese new year this year round?
Anyhow, if one stick to high dividend counter, i think this might provide a small opportunity to go in. Let see an example on this. Last week as i was in KL, the latex glove counters are very hot. Supermax went to RM6. Analyst's report are all very bullish, and don't know how many investors will be prompted to go in at that time? As of today, supermax has dropped to RM5.18, that is 13% drop. I didn't go to that counter (actually before the super run up in price prior to last week, i did think to diversify to glove counter), as the price has run up too much, and MOST important dividend is low for those counters.
So, what is the dividend stock i'm looking at? for the last two days, OSK and S&P has covered Zhulian. Its current dividend yield of 7.7% is pretty attractive. The counter has little debt and high ROE of 27%. For consumer based counter (it is MLM company) which has been able to weather the last year crisis, i think there is little risk that its business will drop a lot. By going in now, at least we can expect a stable 7.7% dividend
Mean time, hai-o is RM8.59 now. if it reach RM8.3 or below again, perhaps i will go in a little. It is still great to get its bonus and share split (ex date not year annouced) with decent dividend yield of >5%.
Anyhow, if one stick to high dividend counter, i think this might provide a small opportunity to go in. Let see an example on this. Last week as i was in KL, the latex glove counters are very hot. Supermax went to RM6. Analyst's report are all very bullish, and don't know how many investors will be prompted to go in at that time? As of today, supermax has dropped to RM5.18, that is 13% drop. I didn't go to that counter (actually before the super run up in price prior to last week, i did think to diversify to glove counter), as the price has run up too much, and MOST important dividend is low for those counters.
So, what is the dividend stock i'm looking at? for the last two days, OSK and S&P has covered Zhulian. Its current dividend yield of 7.7% is pretty attractive. The counter has little debt and high ROE of 27%. For consumer based counter (it is MLM company) which has been able to weather the last year crisis, i think there is little risk that its business will drop a lot. By going in now, at least we can expect a stable 7.7% dividend
Mean time, hai-o is RM8.59 now. if it reach RM8.3 or below again, perhaps i will go in a little. It is still great to get its bonus and share split (ex date not year annouced) with decent dividend yield of >5%.
Lots of free investment seminar lately
Lots of free investment seminar lately at Penang. Is this a sign that shows investors are coming? if one look at the volume and index of bursa, volume is indeed higher than last year, and generally the market is up. I don't really rely on volume to time my entry, but it does make me feel good seeing this.
those organized by the investment banks together with Bursa (example, there will be one by RHB at G Hotel on 23 jan. click this to register
on the same day, there is one by fundsupermart
on the same day, there is a investment talk by Public Mutual for its gold investor at Sunway Carnival convention center
Chartnexus offers an almost weekly event at gurney drive as well
i'm gonna attend some of them
those organized by the investment banks together with Bursa (example, there will be one by RHB at G Hotel on 23 jan. click this to register
on the same day, there is one by fundsupermart
on the same day, there is a investment talk by Public Mutual for its gold investor at Sunway Carnival convention center
Chartnexus offers an almost weekly event at gurney drive as well
i'm gonna attend some of them
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
new resistant for bursa malaysia
Following US market 115 points up yesterday, if i were to take heed on what the instructor mentioned last saturday, it is highly likely bursa malaysia will try to break resistant rather than drop below support. Unfortunately i couldn't remember the resistant for bursa. But i do remember that the resistant for dow jones is 10800. Today, the bursa has up a bit so it seems to me what the instructor mentioned in the seminar does hold water so far. Let's continue and see
Monday, January 18, 2010
Hai-o when is the entitlement date for bonus issue and share split
I am searching to see when hai-o is gonna announce the entitlement date for the bonus issue and share split. many of us are thinking once announced, it might be interesting to see how the share price will perform. over the last 1 week plus, it has since yet another round of RM0.5 swing...not too much considering its current price. Yesterday the technical analysis trainer say he uses chart to buy stock and uses news (fundamental) to confirm the the logics behind. i think probably on hai-o i can do the reverse to see what is the reason of this sort of swing. the RM2 swing lately recently still hasn't been answered.
anyhow, here is the lastest news on 12 january.
Board proposes to increase the authorised share capital of the Company from RM100,000,000 comprising 200,000,000 ordinary shares of RM0.50 each in Hai-O to RM250,000,000 comprising 500,000,000 ordinary shares of RM0.50 each in Hai-O (after the Proposed Share Split) (“Proposed Increase in Authorised Share Capital”) to cater to the Proposed Bonus Issue and Proposed Private Placement and for future increases in the Company’s issued and paid-up share capital.
anyhow, here is the lastest news on 12 january.
Board proposes to increase the authorised share capital of the Company from RM100,000,000 comprising 200,000,000 ordinary shares of RM0.50 each in Hai-O to RM250,000,000 comprising 500,000,000 ordinary shares of RM0.50 each in Hai-O (after the Proposed Share Split) (“Proposed Increase in Authorised Share Capital”) to cater to the Proposed Bonus Issue and Proposed Private Placement and for future increases in the Company’s issued and paid-up share capital.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
fundamental analysis + technical analysis = prosper
I attended a technical analysis seminar yesterday. I have never used TA in my stock purchase but i think it is not bad to learn another method. According to the speaker, FA + TA = FATA , which means prosper in mandarin. Anyhow, throughout the seminar, i begin to grasp some knowledge about what TA is. It is pretty much like trying to model how a stock price will go, based on a sample of historical data. It is very much statistic in nature, which i use quite a lot in my work. However, i'm still comfortable with my current fundamental method. Dow Jones support line is around 10538 and resistant 10800. A key knowledge about TA is that if the point drop below support, it may highly likely trend down further. Likewise, it is gonna up if it breaks resistant. So, it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow after that the US market reopen. With and analysis based on other indicators such as MACD, RSI, it seems there is a bearish divergence. This simply means there is high chances for market correction. One 'fundamental' check would be the claim rate for FDIC (the equivalent of PIDM in Malaysia) that protect savings account of user with US banks. So far, US banks continue to fail (133 banks for 2009, and already 3 banks for 2010). Another key indicator used in TA is volume. Lately, we see increase in trading volume but stock indices is not going much higher, suggesting there is equal number of buy/sell order.
One speaker brings out an interesting question, how do we start select the stocks we want? do we look at the most actively traded counters everyday? For technical analysis approach, the chartnexus (the organizer of the seminar) enables user to set criteria (based on patterns or info such as support, resistance) to filter down to the share they want. For fundamental analysis approach, that reminded me that i actually started getting many of the stocks in my current portfolio by referring to dynaquest stock market data book. Here is the website www.dynaquest.com.my. It provides a rating system based on fundamental data which helps to filter down to the company we wish to invest.
One speaker brings out an interesting question, how do we start select the stocks we want? do we look at the most actively traded counters everyday? For technical analysis approach, the chartnexus (the organizer of the seminar) enables user to set criteria (based on patterns or info such as support, resistance) to filter down to the share they want. For fundamental analysis approach, that reminded me that i actually started getting many of the stocks in my current portfolio by referring to dynaquest stock market data book. Here is the website www.dynaquest.com.my. It provides a rating system based on fundamental data which helps to filter down to the company we wish to invest.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
My Malaysian stock portfolio and market strategy for year 2010
Every new year, we see analyst and investment banks recommending stocks and strategy for the new year.
I spent the last 2 days at Port Dickson and KL with my soon to be certified financial planner (CFP) friend Sean. He shown me what a financial planning proposal will be. It should covers a personal cash flow (actually it consist of net worth and monthly spending), tax and investment portfolio. All these info are important to provide a guideline to us as it can serve to guide us in personal financial planning. There will be a set of personal financial ratio (debt income, savings...etc, which i perhaps blog about in future) to be calculated as summary of one's financial standing, which is not unlike the ratios used by listed companies. By looking at the ratio, one can judge what he needs to do with his financial, for example if debt is too high, he must target to reduce debt. Or he can look at the cash flow to see where he can reduce spending and boost investment portion, in case the ratio suggested that one invests/saves too little.
i will start by properly listing down my stocks and calculate their return. in fact it is pretty hard to keep track of one's return in stock after few years, especially after so many dividend received.
A simple way is to use Excel to do the calculation, by utilizing the powerful XIRR uneven cash flow formula. I will blog about this in future.
back to my stock portfolio, here is my current one
---------------------------------------------
my strategy remains simple, buy and hold. I prefer dividend stock at the moment. They will be able to withstand market correction (even if their share price dropped i still gets dividend provided business is not adversely affected).
I spent the last 2 days at Port Dickson and KL with my soon to be certified financial planner (CFP) friend Sean. He shown me what a financial planning proposal will be. It should covers a personal cash flow (actually it consist of net worth and monthly spending), tax and investment portfolio. All these info are important to provide a guideline to us as it can serve to guide us in personal financial planning. There will be a set of personal financial ratio (debt income, savings...etc, which i perhaps blog about in future) to be calculated as summary of one's financial standing, which is not unlike the ratios used by listed companies. By looking at the ratio, one can judge what he needs to do with his financial, for example if debt is too high, he must target to reduce debt. Or he can look at the cash flow to see where he can reduce spending and boost investment portion, in case the ratio suggested that one invests/saves too little.
i will start by properly listing down my stocks and calculate their return. in fact it is pretty hard to keep track of one's return in stock after few years, especially after so many dividend received.
A simple way is to use Excel to do the calculation, by utilizing the powerful XIRR uneven cash flow formula. I will blog about this in future.
back to my stock portfolio, here is my current one
---------------------------------------------
- genting -> let see how its forthcoming singapore casino fares
- pbbank -> public bank is always my favourite bank in malaysia. i also invest into its unit trust via public mutual
- melewar -> actually i don't favour it anymore but selling it at current price seems not a good move. after all, i have low holding on it
- mycron (thanks to melewar, i have this)
- digi
- hai-o -> 85% quarter eps increase just announced. decent dividend yield of 5%
- NTPM (my past favourite. manufacture Premier brand of tissue paper)
- ytlpower
- lpi
my strategy remains simple, buy and hold. I prefer dividend stock at the moment. They will be able to withstand market correction (even if their share price dropped i still gets dividend provided business is not adversely affected).
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