in the cash flow,i, presuming i buy in now at RM6.2, presuming dividend grow at 5% whereas stock price up by 10% , the positive net cashflow simply means it is worth investing into the counter. Take note that there are 'presumption' made. It may or may not happen
the NPV@15% is just a targetted 15% annual return and not used in calculation
| Forecast Best - Dividend growth 5% p.a with share price appreciation 10% p.a | |||||||||||
| Final Div | Interim Div | Total Div | yoy total Div growth | yoy Interim Div growth | Cash Flow,i | Cash Flow,Div | Net Cashflow | ||||
| 2003 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 25.00% | 25.00% | |||||||
| 2004 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 140.00% | 20.00% | |||||||
| 2005 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.12 | -33.33% | 33.33% | ||||||
| 2006 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 62.50% | 62.50% | |||||||
| 2007 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 207.69% | 146.15% | |||||||
| 2008 | 0.32 | 0.08 | 0.4 | 5.00% | 0.00% | ||||||
| 2009 | 0.32 | 0.1 | 0.42 | -20.00% | 5.00% | $ (6,200.00) | 420 | -5780 | $389.97 | NPV@15% | Ok |
| 2010 | 0.336 | 0.336 | 5.00% | 5.00% | 336 | 336 | |||||
| 2011 | 0.3528 | 0.3528 | 5.00% | 5.00% | 352.8 | 352.8 | |||||
| 2012 | 0.37044 | 0.37044 | N.A | N.A | $8,252.20 | 370.44 | 8622.64 | $593.10 | NFV@15% | OK | |
2 comments:
haha, actually very deep for me to understand your table....
but, one simple rule, if it is good biz, it is definitely for sale now.... buy progressively and hold ;)
for me, i will definitely hold....
credit goes to my friend Sean. I just copycat niah. But what is important is the application of it. I think this time at least it will serve a purpose to calm myself down that data wise it shows worth to hold it. Again, stock price is sentimentally driven.
the cash flow, i, is based on current purchase price of RM6.2. then it simply add up all the dividend (presuming there is a growth) and project the future value given a growth of 10% in stock price. Everything is math + some guessing.
all this will fail if the company has account irregularity or some insider info. But presuming efficient market theory, this is at best we can do right now.
at the end it fall back to some simple choose buy hold and keep buying strategy
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